As part of the Routes to Transformation program by ERM, GlobeScan, and Volans, this paper explores what happens when sustainability enters “Gray Rhino Territory,”  a future shaped by highly probable risks that are visible but often ignored.   

Despite growing doubts about achieving sustainability goals, experts see new opportunities for progress. The findings point to a shift from voluntary commitments toward stronger market, policy, and accountability mechanisms driving change. 

What This Report Covers 

Drawing on insights from 610 sustainability experts across 57 countries, this Green Paper explores how sustainability is evolving in an era of disruption and what that could mean for business, government, finance, and society through 2037. 

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Key Findings 

  • Sustainability experts see disruption as the primary driver of change. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of experts now believe that crisis and disruption drive sustainability progress more powerfully than planned collective action, signalling a major shift in how change is expected to happen. 
  • Confidence in outcomes remains low, but confidence in solutions is rising. Only 10% believe the world will reach net zero by 2050 and just 5% believe most companies will meet their 2030 climate goals. Yet 108 of 128 year-on-year ratings of sustainability interventions improved between 2025 and 2026, suggesting growing confidence in new approaches to change. 
  • A new theory of change is emerging. Experts increasingly favor tools that change market incentives and accountability, including carbon pricing, trade policy, subsidy reform, supply-chain leverage, and legal mechanisms. Traditional voluntary instruments such as reporting and corporate pledges are rated far less effective. 
  • Five major shifts could define the decade ahead. The Green Paper identifies five transitions already reshaping the sustainability landscape: from soft to hard sustainability, globalization to “reglobalization,” business to markets as the unit of change, corporate citizenship to politics, and Boomers to Zoomers as key drivers of future priorities. 
  • Future leadership will extend beyond sustainability teams. The next phase of sustainability is likely to be driven increasingly by leaders in finance, procurement, risk, legal affairs, government relations, and product development as sustainability becomes embedded across core business functions.