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ERM’s 2024 Global Offshore Wind Report finds that offshore wind development is accelerating in markets across all regions. Governments and industry awarded nearly 40 GW of offshore wind lease and power contracts over the last year through competitive auctions. Excluding China, developers brought another 3 GW online to reach a global total of 68 GW in operation. This continued growth comes against a backdrop of economic headwinds, including rising inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain constraints.
Floating offshore wind continues to show promise with the potential to open significantly more sites than are currently available for development of traditional fixed-bottom foundations. Notably, the 88 MW Hywind Tampen project entered operations in Norway in 2023, becoming the world’s largest floating offshore wind project.
Despite a positive picture overall, the report also finds that at current rates of growth, offshore wind deployment will not meet the growth required to achieve the COP28 pledge to triple renewables by 2030. Based on planned offshore wind auctions and current development timelines, the current state of play puts the world on track for up to around 233 GW of installed offshore wind capacity by 2030 and up to 340 GW by 2033, less than half of the 494 GW by 2030 that IRENA estimates is necessary to keep temperatures below a 1.5°C rise.
At the same time, ERM estimates that there is over 1,360 GW of offshore wind in development globally. This means there is more than enough capacity in the pipeline for offshore wind to grow in line with what is needed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. However, developers and governments now need to move quickly to unlock it.
“There is no single market entity that can solve these headwinds alone, and accelerating offshore wind deployment requires involvement from multiple stakeholders across policy makers, developers, supply chain and industry,” says Tugce Sahin, ERM Market Intelligence Lead.
For more information or to download a copy of the Executive Summary, click here.
To sign up to a free trial of ERM’s Global Offshore Wind Database, GRIP, click here.
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