Episode 36: Building on Belém: Insights from COP30

The transcript highlights below have been edited for clarity 

Mark Lee 

Hi, everyone, and welcome to this next episode of the Sustainable Connections Podcast. I'm Mark Lee, the Global Director of Thought Leadership at ERM, and I'm the regular host of this podcast program. We have a bit of a special episode today. Often we talk to ERM partners and clients about the work that we do in field, and today I have an all ERM lineup of guests with me. That's because we're just approaching the end of COP30 that's been taking place in Belém, Brazil, the latest international negotiation, meeting of governments, but attended by so many others on climate.  

It's kind of a completion of a circle in some ways to be back in Brazil in 2025 for COP30, looking ahead at the 2030 and 2050 ambitions that governments and others have established under the Paris Agreement to drive forwards towards a low carbon economy. More than that, the COP has been nestled in the heart of the Amazon, kind of strategic and symbolic, I think, given what the Amazon represents in terms of the Earth's literal lungs and an ability to absorb carbon, but also its importance in a nature context, which will certainly be part of our conversation today. It's also really meaningful that Brazil, who's holding the COP presidency, has a strong desire to tie nature and climate and just transition, the impacts on people related to these things all together. That's been a flavor of the event.  

Going into this COP, it seems like every one of them almost gets a nickname. There were really heightened expectations going into Belém around implementation, that this is not the time for more ambitions or the announcement of new goals, but that this has to be about getting stuff done. This has led to COP30 being called the “implementation COP”, but in all honesty, the events carried a whole bunch of names. It's been labeled the “people's COP”, it's the “social COP”, the “truth COP”, and the “integration COP”, probably among many others. And these different names highlight the diversity of topics that have been covered, the complexity of what that means in terms of coming towards solutions but also reflects a mood that's a bit different from past COP conferences, where it was about building things up, setting the agenda. So that shift to implementation means we must now be delivering change.  

That's a lot in terms of a setup, probably more than I normally do. Thankfully, I've got lots of help to try and unpick that the rest of the way. I mentioned it's an ERM expert lineup today, and I'm joined by three ERM colleagues. Ricardo Zibas, who is the Regional Head of Climate Change and Corporate Sustainability in Latin America for ERM. Ricardo is based in São Paulo, so he's got a Brazilian perspective on this event, which we'll want to get into. Linden Edgell, who is the Global Sustainability Director for ERM, lives and works from Australia, but has been in Brazil these last few weeks for pre-COP events and COP itself. Finally, Alex Guaqueta, who is our Global Leader of Social Performance and Human Rights, based in Washington, DC. She was also in Belém for a good part of the COP.  

I want to get into the mood of the event to start off. Ricardo, I think, with you being a Brazilian national, sitting in the host country, and often having represented Brazil at COPs, I'd like to start with you and just hear what the mood was in country about hosting this. What were the local expectations, if you will, and what did you find on the ground? How has COP30 met, maybe even exceeded your expectations? 

Ricardo Zibas 

First of all, hi, Mark. Hi, everybody. Thanks for having me. Of course, as a Brazilian, I also felt that we were in debt because we were supposed to host a COP back in 2019 and for all the different reasons, we didn't. And that COP was a different one because it then moved to Chile and then finally to Madrid. So there was no COP in Latin America that year. So, we also thought that at some point in time, we should pay that debt. Once there were elections and a government change, one of the first measures that the new government took, even before getting inaugurated, was to announce the COP in Brazil. And for all the reasons that I mentioned, and moreover, to show what is the frontline of the daily lives of people who live in the Amazon, and to show what it’s like to be in the heart of the Amazon. The idea was to bring COP to Belém. Of course, there were a lot of logistical challenges. There were a lot of infrastructure challenges. But so far, I think despite all of that, our perception is that expectations are still high. As you said, we are in the middle of the second week of COP. Some announcements have been made. A lot of announcements are expected to be made. So, I would say the mood remains optimistic. 

Mark Lee 

Yeah, it has felt remarkably positive watching it from California for me these last couple of weeks. I'm glad it's felt like that to you in Brazil. I'm also glad that Brazil got to pay its debt and finally host this event.  

Linden, I mentioned you've been on the ground for a few weeks. You started outside the Amazon. There were a whole host of pre-COP events in both Rio and São Paulo, and I think scattered to a degree elsewhere, but maybe concentrated in those two cities. And you were in São Paulo for parts of those. I wonder what that ramp up was all about and whether it created a tone and maybe an intent that carried over into Belém or whether it was really kind of two separate things. You know, those advanced meetings focused in different ways and then the COP itself. Can you describe the connections and how it's all worked? 

Linden Edgell  

Thanks, Mark, and hi to all. I think it definitely helped because although three weeks will be a very long period by the time we get to the end of it, those meetings beforehand, so there was meetings of cities and mayors in Rio, the business focus tended to be more around São Paulo with the Principles for Responsible Investment Conference and then other business conferences. And so many people came there with the action focus. So, the action kind of started before we even got to COP. There was lots of very focused engagements, lots of roundtable discussions, lots of people getting into rooms and working out how to get things done. So, the momentum was absolutely happening in those places. And then by the time we got to COP, we were all kind of hit the ground running. The plane flights up to Belém were about a four-hour flight from São Paulo. Everybody was meeting everybody, swapping ideas, swapping connections. The momentum certainly built.  

I think there's a couple of other things to really note with the Brazilian COP. I agree with the optimism. Ricardo, while you missed out on 2019, I actually think the time was perfect now for this to be in Brazil because of the Brazilian action focus, the need to get nature in the heart of it with people. So being in the Amazon, that's a strategic placement of that. And I think the optimism with which the Brazilians have brought to the whole COP process, saying we can do things differently, we can work in different ways, we can collaborate. The mutirão effect of collaboration, I think has really driven the momentum of this COP. So I actually think it was perfect timing.  

The perfect image for me so far of this COP, and some of you may have seen this in the media. On Friday morning as we arrived at the Blue Zone, there was a protest with some of the local indigenous peoples. What happened was the COP president and the COP CEO walked out to talk to those people. There's this enduring photo of the COP president standing there with a baby in his arms, negotiating with the local Indigenous people, saying, OK, how can we work this out? Now, that is so different to some of the recent COPs we've had. Saturday, the people took to the streets and marched and protested. And that civil society voice, the voice of the people in the heart of the COP, I think says so much about being in Brazil. And yes, others say there could be more representation for sure, but I think it's come a long way. 

Mark Lee 

Yeah, it's been a really powerful part of the images and the messages coming out as far as I'm concerned and strikingly different from some recent COPs and other global events where there just hasn't been the permission or the space for those kinds of voices to be raised in those ways.  

Alex, I think it's fair to say, if you followed a track at COP, it's been more on the social side, looking at people, nature, climate, all in combination, but emphasizing the societal impacts part of it. What common themes have you seen emerging and how are those diverse but related topics connecting? 

Alexandra Guaqueta  

Yeah, thanks, Mark, and hi Ricardo and Linden. Good to be with all of you here. A couple of common themes. Clearly, integration you're already saying it with your own question. So definitely the need to understand nature-based solutions for climate, but then how those nature-based solutions may also benefit people and address inequality, which is understood today as a systemic risk. So that part, I think that came through every single day of events, both before Belém in the pre-COP meetings in São Paulo that we were at, and then in Belém for sure.  

There's another angle of integration which I think was mentioned very strongly in the panels, discussions, meetings that we were at. It was the need to integrate climate, nature, and people to the business strategy. And of course, another thing that we were following was not only what governments were talking about doing and agreeing, but what was the role of the private sector.  

So that takes me perhaps to the other common theme which is public private partnerships, I think this was a very important theme. This COP, in private COPs, the private sector was often, if you want voluntary and aspirational, their engagement. And I think that in this COP, the private sector became a strategic and operational partner to getting things done. So, I do think that the greater visibility of the private sector was a theme and the need for these public-private partnerships. Blended finance, for instance, is just one of those types of partnerships that was mentioned.  

Then another theme and in no particular order, I noted was we want those three topics to be understood together. They shouldn't be siloed, climate, nature and people. At the same time, because people are so important to getting things done, both by governments and companies, we do need to simplify the message in order to bring broader sections of society along our climate action plans, global plans, national plans, local plans, sectoral plans, etc. So, I think that's a good challenge for all of us in having to bring people along, to ensure that this agenda is successful and accepted. Those would be my themes, Mark. 

Mark Lee 

And one of them in the middle, Alex, if I can just briefly follow up, you mentioned greater visibility of the private sector. It feels at every COP that that's a double-edged sword, that there's a great expectation that the private sector should do more. There's concern about how much the private sector influences what is a governmental negotiation. How did you perceive that this time? 

Alexandra Guaqueta  

Yes, you're absolutely right. I think that sometimes, some civil society organizations may see private sector presence with some concern. But I do think that today we're all clear that the implementation of climate action, mitigation, and adaptation on the ground. We will need the private sector to do that. Like it is the private sector who will build the miles and miles of new transmission lines that we need. There will be the private sector that will build the new renewables. It will be investors, your commercial banks and pension funds and insurance companies and others that will need to bring additional financing to what the public sector can bring in order to get these things done. So yes of course, I do understand that some folks may be concerned with how companies lobby, but at the same time, companies are at the heart of getting things done. 

What sets COP30 apart from previous COPs 

Mark Lee 

It always strikes me as well, just in the simplest terms, that this is a problem and a planetary challenge that is so big that we need all sectors, public, private, civil society, working together on solutions.  

Ricardo, I'm going to come back to you and I'm going to ask all three of you some questions kind of in this category. It's comparing COPs. We've done this 30 times now. And so flashing across all those years, the expectations have changed, the nature of the negotiations has changed, the scale of the events has changed. This one appears to have been the second largest ever after COP28 in Dubai a couple of years ago.  

But Ricardo, focusing on the government part of this and maybe on society's expectations for our governments in terms of what's happening on climate. There was a recent survey from GlobeScan, one of ERM's research partners, that found that a majority, 51 per cent, but a majority of people across at least 33 countries were expecting their countries to play a clear leadership role at COP30. And that the way they expected that to happen was through ambitious climate targets, but in demonstrating that they would address climate change as quickly as possible. So, it seems like this underlying maybe dissatisfaction with pace. So, there's demand for climate action from citizens. That's in spite of all the geopolitical turbulence we see and policy shifts. In that context, did you see some government actions at COP30 that stood out that are promising? 

Ricardo Zibas 

Well, as you mentioned, the whole dynamic of what is a COP has shifted over the years. From a tiny event, government-related, where private sector has no voice, and even civil society had no voice. It was pretty much government related. So, as you said, this took it from the backstage to the front lines, I wouldn't say very quickly, but in some years. Having said that, I think also there is a shift on discussions. On previous COPs before Paris, the whole discussion between governments was who is going to have commitments and who is not going to have commitments so they can become developed countries. Until Paris, the whole discussion was, should developing countries have commitments? And after Paris, that shifted, right? From Paris on, and we see that the discussion has changed to so who is going to pay for a orderly and just transition away from fossil fuels? I think that's a significant difference, right? 

Mark Lee 

Tall order as well. 

Ricardo Zibas 

Yeah. So having said that, we are expecting, as we're recording this on November 18. We're expecting for tomorrow the first disclosure of what is being called the Belém package, with several decisions on key areas that governments will try to agree overnight until tomorrow.  

Mark Lee 

It's going to be a long night.  

Ricardo Zibas 

Yeah, it's going to be a long night. So, we received the comments that catering will be available 24 hours, also buses. So it's going to be a long night because ministers are arriving. President Lula is expected to arrive here tomorrow. There is a lot of pressure to deliver that. But the expectations are around the Article 9.1, which is about developed countries' commitment to provide resources to developing countries regarding mitigation adaptation. Also, the huge or larger ambition on commitments to the 1.5 degrees. Also, some news about emissions reporting. Having said that, I think of what has been announced, and then we are going to go back on that, I think at least two great announcements have been made. One is the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, which I think is quite innovative, on funneling resources to the local communities. And the other one is the Open Coalition on Compliance on Carbon Markets, where 18 countries, including China and the EU, have committed to strengthening those compliance carbon markets. So I think there’s lots of expectations still, but some progress is being made already. 

Mark Lee 

Yeah, some striking moves along the way. The Tropical Forests Forever Facility, if people haven't heard of it and aren't familiar with it yet, essentially is trying to set up an investment fund to pay countries to keep forests standing instead of cutting them down. The carbon markets piece is part of a larger story of almost the rebuilding the integrity of carbon markets over the last few years, where we're seeing, I think a real different kind of momentum.  

Linden, I’ll let you build on this, you may have seen country-specific actions that have stood out for you. I'm also curious about your sense of whether the implementation COP has delivered. Has it truly been different than the past ones? And if so, does that help a new shape of COPs emerge going forward? 

Linden Edgell  

I mean, so far, yes, we are seeing a lot more focus on action and implementation and the list of announcements is extensive. But it's interesting combination. So, this announcement might be three or four countries saying in this particular geography or on this particular topic, we'll get in and unlock a barrier over here. It might be in the thing that's known as jurisdictional red. So this is country or biome scale natural climate solutions, which is not one jurisdiction, not project by project, but saying, actually we're going to get all of the actors together, different levels of government, the different industries in the area, the different communities. And collectively, we're going to try and find a solution. So that's happening in a particular state in Brazil.  

Other parts are different parts of the finance sector coming together. I mean, one of the real challenges again, as we're sitting in South America at the moment is risk. Finance, and private finance typically doesn't flow where risk is high. So, lots of combinations of the big development banks and governments taking on some more of the risk, which allows private finance to flow in. That finance is coming in from the bond markets, from the capital markets, from the insurance markets. Again, I think there's a level of innovation and creativity that is coming into this COP, that is looking at the opportunity side of the energy transition, the economic transition that we are going through. And I think that's really interesting. Because once people start to see opportunity, while noting definitely that we obviously still have to decarbonize and manage emissions. But when opportunity is there, money flows, innovation flows, technology flows. That opens up all sorts of different collaboration and energy, I guess. I think we've all sensed an energy here in Belém this week. 

Mark Lee 

Linden, I'm wondering about the possible tension between letting a thousand flowers bloom, which sounds great. These few countries doing this in this region, this finance flowing into this pocket, and coordinated action overall. Is that the trade-off in the current polarized political climate, that it's been necessary, perhaps to break it down to many initiatives and drive things forward somewhat piecemeal and hope to bring them back together later? 

Linden Edgell  

I mean, hopefully it's not a tradeoff. Certainly the voices of the developing world are very loud on the fact that there is not enough money flowing into adaptation. We are well below the funding arrangements going into adaptation. Unfortunately, adaptation is here. Like adaptation is not a future thing. Countries are being impacted today, and the money is not there. So that absolutely is a big issue. There is still massive money flowing into fossil fuel subsidies that even if a portion of that was redirected into activities to reduce emissions, we'd be way further along the roadmap. There is still a big gap between the 1.5 target and where we are today. So is it a trade-off? I don't know. I think a lot of people would like to see the ambition held in some of that there, but I think there's also a pragmatism coming in that says, well, we kind of can't wait for the perfect. So I guess we'll see how that plans out. 

Mark Lee 

How it all plays and where you ended there, the pragmatism, it reminds me of what we described as grounded optimism at New York Climate Week, that people were finding ways to make progress and to grind it out even in spite of the challenges. So hopefully that all accumulates.  

Alex, back to you. This COP was different and this COP was different again because of the Brazilian presidency. For the first time, the country holding the presidency going into a COP said, social has to be part of everything. We are not going to negotiate and talk about climate and nature in isolation. This is where that kind of social COP label came in alongside implementation COP. So how does that play out? Like how does just transition and people topics actually get manifested in the negotiations and the policy agreements that are emerging in Belém? 

Alexandra Guaqueta  

Yes, absolutely. So, it's been amazing to see the people angle being mentioned right at the beginning and every single intervention of Brazil and the COP president, people or just transition have been mentioned. Let me just give you a couple of examples. Starting with the Belém Declaration on Hunger, Poverty and Human Centered Climate Action. So already, it's a typical government-led, high-level declaration, and it is about ensuring that climate action is also addressing poverty and food security. We know that that's at the heart of people resilience to climate physical risk. And we also know that bringing people along will be necessary in order to have the political support to continue working on climate action going forward. So, the fact that that declaration came up very early in the process, I think set the tone.  

The Tropical Forest Forever Facility that we've already mentioned in this podcast is about supporting indigenous peoples and local communities with land rights and climate finance. So, the fact that people are at the center of one of the most important initiatives you mentioned is also telling. The Global Stocktake had six topics, one of them human and social development. There's a just transition work program which started a couple of COPs ago. I understand they're still working on that one, and it may include the recognition of the importance of social and environmental safeguards for energy transition minerals, also fair value creation and mineral supply chains, etc. So those are some of the ways in which just transition has been showing up in some of the government initiatives.  

But it's also showing up in private public initiatives. There's one on jobs and skills for the new economy. There's the Belém Health Action Plan, I can mention many others. And so that perhaps shows how prevalent the topic of just transition has been throughout this COP. It also shows a little bit the thousand flowers blooming that we have mentioned as well, which I think is inevitable of what global implementation looks like. It has to be place-based. It has to be specific. It has to be focused. So, I feel comfortable with the thousand flowers blooming and very comfortable with the fact that people are at the center of many of those. 

The role of the private sector and implications for companies 

Mark Lee 

No, it really sounds like the Brazil objective of getting it integrated and making it fully part of the conversations is being realized, which is what we hoped. So, we've been a bit more governmental focused in the conversation so far, the COP writ large and what governments are doing, want to come to what are companies doing, what has been the role of business and what's getting done.  

Ricardo, Linden mentioned one of the things we're still grappling with are funding gaps. There was a report just before the COP from something called the High Level Expert Group on Climate Finance. Folks may not know the name, but they may remember something in this category that's been chaired by Nick Stern. This is one of a series of reports in this category. They claim, they believe, that maybe half of the $1.3 trillion in climate funding that's estimated to be needed by developing countries by 2035 to meet the kind of climate challenge writ large could be met by the private sector. So why is the private sector so essential to scaling climate finance? Do you think this is going to happen? Are we on the cusp of that kind of scale of investment? 

Ricardo Zibas 

Well, that's a terrific question, Mark. I was present when Sir Nicholas Stern presented the first version of his report back in 2006. Since then, the sums have always increased and the gap also gets bigger and bigger. So, from the $1.3 million that you mentioned for climate finance to fund resilience and basic infrastructure, what we have promised so far is around $300 billion by 2035. Much of it is in loans or private finance. What has materialized so far is around $100 billion, from which around $20 billion is considered what we call climate aid or direct government grants. So, you see that almost 80 per cent of what has already materialized is from the private sector or blended finance. So that's the size of the role that we are expecting from the private sector. So of course, there is a lot of things to do. But as Linden and Alex mentioned, what we are starting to see at this COP is not only the risk approach, but the opportunity approach to do that. So, opportunity brings innovation, and that's a lot of initiatives we see through that optic. So, I think, yes, we are lagging behind, but I think that we're starting to see some good signs ahead. 

Mark Lee 

So, it underscores somewhat that there are still big gaps. The amount of money that's literally been put on the table isn't enough or isn't equal to what's been estimated. But I thought really interesting, you saying that 80 per cent of the money that is on the table has come from the private sector. Linden, given you had raised the gaps first, maybe we want to throw this ball back to you. Can you give us a couple of examples of maybe business and financial institution investments or actions that are part of driving this forward that have stood out? 

Linden Edgell  

I mean, it's actually quite a long list that's coming out, but just to highlight a few. So we are members of the Climate Pledge. This is a group of companies who've made commitments to reach net zero by 2040, so 10 years earlier than the 2050 target. And Amazon's a great player in that. The Climate Pledge announced a new electric truck corridor between São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro this week because of the huge number of freight movements between those two cities. Now it'll be electric trucks going up and down that route with the infrastructure needed. So that's kind of a very practical example on the ground, and they've involved the governments, the companies, the manufacturers, the grids and everybody else. So that's practical.  

And then mentioning grids. There's a new grids and storage initiative, because again, we've got a lot of degeneration happening, but in many parts of the world, the grids are not coping. We can't get the energy from the renewable source into the homes and businesses that need it. The German government, the Australian government and others are working with the multilateral development banks and utility companies to really focus on how is it that we get the blockages out of grids and introduce storage. Because again, we need more storage in the system so that we can get rid of the base load power coming from maybe gas or coal in big utility structures through from that. So that's the grids and storage initiative.  

Looking at supply chains and value chains. Unilever was talking about how in India they have 32 big manufacturers. These are people in their supply chain who effectively make the things that Unilever need. They organize what's called a PPA, a purchase power agreement. They use their buying power to negotiate a big energy contract, renewable energy contract, which then those 32 different entities could take advantage of. It's too hard for them to do it on their own, 32 times over. Unilever used its power and organizational skills to have that happen. So cheaper, more reliable power goes to those manufacturers, benefits those businesses, benefits those communities, and benefits the grid because of the way it’s distributed. So, 3 different types of examples of where things are moving but there are many others. 

Mark Lee 

No, I like the way the examples illustrate what happens when you get down to look at individual flowers among the thousands, right? I find it really encouraging that it leads to that concrete change on a major trucking route in a certain place in Brazil, that it's going to fix and affect grids in this way, that it's shifting power supply to Unilever suppliers in India, and that we can all add back up to see if we're making progress on emissions.  

Ricardo, sticking with finance for just one more question. We've been a bit more climate focused but have headlined the nature element here. Are nature-based solutions being adequately financed and scaled as part of the kind of solution set as we drive forward? 

Ricardo Zibas 

Building on that, Mark, I think like we mentioned, we still have a huge gap. I think that at least for what I can remember, the day of nature or to acknowledge the value of keeping the forest alive or keeping the forest there instead of cutting it is not new. I'll say that the prototype of the TFFF (Tropical Forest Forever Facility) was first mentioned back in 2007 in Indonesia, at COP13. So back then, nobody was really interested on that. So, if you take that in consideration that TFFF already has arranged $5.5 billion in capitalization from 53 countries, the momentum has built up, but it's still not enough.  

So I think especially for companies, what we see is two different approaches. You have the pioneers that are proactive and understand their impact and the value of nature in their operations, especially in the supply chain, like Linden mentioned. But you still have, and I would say the majority of companies have a very reactive approach. What those companies are starting to notice is that in several jurisdictions, if they don't value nature, governments are starting to do so. As an example, we have several engagements here from many sectors, but mostly from personal hygiene and perfumes. Companies are starting to get worried because they are being pushed to pay for the bio assets they use, not only in Brazil, but also in India and in Indonesia. It's much cheaper when you are a pioneer and you are prepared to do so than when you are not expecting and get a sudden taxation on assets that are crucial for your supply chain. 

Mark Lee 

Yeah and thinking through how we put a value on nature that is fair and who sort of benefits from that value. It's not a simple step, but it's encouraging to see us making some progress on it.  

Alex, away from finance, but still with what businesses are doing. We've talked a little bit about just transition and social impact already. You just helped create and publish with WBCSD (The World Business Council for Sustainable Development) a new report called Business Leaders Guide to Address Transition. I wonder if you've got a couple examples of evidence from the COP of businesses putting just transition into practice in their actions, because I think it's been a bit hard for business to get their heads around what their role is and how to execute it. 

Alexandra Guaqueta  

Yes, Mark, and one of the fascinating conversations we had with companies as we were launching this guide is how action needs to happen at different levels. I think the companies are being pragmatic and working at those different levels at the same time. And I'll explain what I mean by those levels. One is ensuring that their governance systems, the sustainability governance systems, are accounting for social impacts, risks, and opportunities. So it's about the tools for decision making. It's about how to integrate people considerations into climate transition planning. It's ensuring that enterprise risk management frameworks, have social risk embedded, and so forth. So, it all sounds a little bit technocratic and dry. But without those tools, then companies will have a difficult time understanding what just transition issues are material to them. So we did hear about better integration into their management systems of people.  

Mark Lee 

Linden, I'm going to leap to you and different topics. So, you know, slightly abrupt transition, but another thing on the agenda and on people's minds and I think in people's concern going into Belém is the role of technology and AI. And it's a place where there's simultaneously tremendous hope. How can technological innovation and AI help us combat and solve climate change? And of course, there's the appetite of the data centers that are being built globally that is contributing to the challenge. So there were initiatives launched in Brazil, the AI Climate Institute from the International Telecommunications Union, UNESCO, and Anatel in Brazil to help people and countries apply artificial intelligence to climate action. But I wonder what examples of innovative technology did you see and how do you think the role of technology and AI in solving for climate is evolving? 

Linden Edgell  

Yeah, the challenge and the opportunity that you presented is very real and very real in some communities more than others. We know that a number of data centers are very water hungry. As so, if they're in water stressed areas, those local communities back to our people topic and nature, can be really stressed by that. So, I think there needs to be continued focus by communities, by governance, and by those companies involved in that kind of whole AI infrastructure build out to really keep those things in mind. The opportunity side, there's an enormous range of things, examples that we've heard this week. Lots of use in AI and other pieces of technology in predictions around climate models, understanding extreme weather events. There was the example given of the recent hurricanes and typhoons in different parts of the world in the last few weeks, how early warning systems that are increasingly accurate enabled those governments to actually prepare several days out from when those storms hit. And so, yes, there was significant damage, no doubt, but perhaps less damage than there would have been if those early warning systems hadn't been in place.  

We have detection systems for methane around the world. And so, coordinated by the UN, but a whole lot of players in that can now, with a high degree of accuracy, see where methane is leaking around the world. And that might be from oil and gas facilities, it might be from rice, it might be from cows, but they can detect where that is, then get in on the ground and try and work with those operators to shut down that methane, which is one of the harmful greenhouse gas areas.  

We heard through the World Business Council, one of the members there is an air conditioning company and has figured out a new form of air conditioner, which effectively can act as an energy storage unit, and therefore help the grid balance out. And you wouldn't believe this, but in many grids around the world, when people flick on their air conditioners, there can be a 30 per cent spike in the use of energy and that often the systems have to be built for that. So, if all of those air conditioners can become kind of a distributed storage system, that helps even out the spikes in the system. Again, kind of innovation and using that.  

And lots of examples of getting energy efficiency and management into the grid systems. So being able to manage peak loads, distribute energy around, drawing renewables when they need, only bring in other sorts of energy at peak times. So, I'm pretty optimistic about what it could be used for and should be used for. Perhaps if more of the efforts went into some of those practical uses in some of the, rather than some of the other applications of AI, which we won't get into, then we might be further along the path. 

How momentum from Belém can drive action ahead of COP31  

Mark Lee 

That's a different podcast, Linden. We'll be back for that on another day. Really interesting, that air conditioning one, I just think the example of how the grid needs to be able to adapt, 30 per cent surges in demand, which are basically instantaneous when the heat goes up. And of course, we're going to have more demand for cooling as we deal with more extreme heat. And this isn't just a nice to have. This is a life-saving issue in many regions. We know that heat waves cause tremendous harm to people and are responsible for terrible mortality. So we've got to figure out a way to deliver that cooling without exacerbating the climate problem.  

We've run through a lot. There's so much more. The event is huge and complicated and not over yet. So we're all going to be watching for COP30's final outcomes. But as we go out in just a minute or two, I just want to ask each of you to look forward. Ricardo, based on what's been achieved so far at COP30, what do you think are emerging as priority issues for companies to work on between now and COP31, a year out? 

Ricardo Zibas 

It’s not easy to forecast the details, Mark, of course. Especially where it's going to be COP 31. We still don't have that answer. But I think despite we don't have the details. I think what companies should know is that the direction is clear. The path forward is clear. Many companies may not agree on some issues, but every decision, every conversation that we have had is that we are moving to a low carbon economy. So I know some companies, are quite skeptic on that, but the path and the direction is clear. You might try to delay it and since you are using the flower metaphor, you might want to delay the spring, but it will come. I think it's in every conversation and every decision that is being made, perhaps not on the speed that we need, but I think that the path is quite clear. 

Mark Lee 

You have a sense of preparing for inevitability, and we've got to model scenarios about timelines, but this is coming.  

Alex, similarly, we talked about the success the Brazilian COP presidency has had baking social into the conversations. If you up the ante going forward into COP31 and beyond, how do you hope social continues to embed and show itself as we talk about climate and nature? 

Alexandra Guaqueta  

We're working, and I say, the broader society. There's another initiative called the Task Force on Inequality and Social Related Financial Disclosures. There will be work over the next year to feed into that. I just mention it because it's another vehicle that will continue driving the social impact agenda alongside climate and its integration to climate. So, in terms of social impact risks and opportunities, I think that companies will need to focus in a sharper way on systemic social risk and look at the opportunities that investments will have for their business strategy and for resilience. It is really the opportunity side, I think as well as understanding the risk that will help companies move forward in this agenda. 

Mark Lee 

So participation in capacity building opportunities through things like the task force, but then that need to understand the systemic challenge.  

Linden, I'm going to give you the last word, going back to the implementation COP label, what are you looking for in terms of tangible action coming out of the COP that demonstrates the implementation agenda moving forward? 

Linden Edgell  

Now, at the start, we talked about four things we were looking for. And my readout so far is the first thing is that mutirão is alive and well, so that spirit of collaboration, I think that gets a big tick. And that collaboration, I think has shown that multilateralism is still alive and well. Yes, there are absolutely headwinds. Yes, there are vested interests that are trying to slow things down or distract things. However, countries showed up, hundreds of countries showed up, hundreds of businesses showed up, second biggest COP. And when people are working together, that brings certainty. Certainty brings investment and it brings action. So that's the second one. I think we can say that's happened. The third was this integration piece. We have absolutely heard we cannot solve for climate without people and nature. So to me, that also gives a tick on progress. And the fourth one is, we said technology deployment for good, for helping us solve some of the really big challenges that we had of us. I think that's a work in progress, but lots of green shoots. So, do we still have a massive gap between where we are and where we need to be? Absolutely. Is there enough finance flowing to the areas that it needs? No. Is there an attack on some of the science that sits at the bottom of this? Yes. So all of those things are true and progress is being made. 

Mark Lee 

Yeah, and progress being made thanks to that collaboration, greater certainty, application of technology, integration of social. Again, it's the bringing all these things together.  

Linden, Ricardo, Alex, my thanks to each of you for going for the work that you do in this space and for helping us understand what's taken place in Brazil over these last couple of weeks. We will, of course, all be looking for the outcomes. We'll talk about them on future episodes of Sustainable Connections.  

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