A new report from the ERM Sustainability Institute has found that six in ten critical mineral projects experience delays in the pre-production phase, materially impacting projects’ net present value (NPV) and negatively impacting investor sentiment in the sector.

The report, “Mission Critical: Building resilient mines for a modern society”, analyzed 226 global mining projects at pre-production stage since 2015. It found that, despite the urgency driven by growing demand, a looming global critical minerals deficit and intense geopolitical competition, mining projects struggle to become operational with almost half of all project delays occurring before the feasibility stage is completed.

ERM’s analysis found that the leading factor contributing to mining project delays is permitting issues (a contributing  factor in 45 percent of delays). Other key factors include stakeholder opposition (26 percent) and environmental concerns (24 percent).

ERM’s research sets out the financial risk of delays, calculating that a mining project with capital expenditures between USD 3 billion and USD 5 billion loses roughly USD 20 million in NPV for every week of delay. The financial implications are a particular risk for junior miners, who the research shows are accountable for over 70 percent of the global critical mineral project pipeline.

Mining project delays are most common in Europe, where 74 percent of projects analyzed had experienced delays, compared with 65 percent in North America and 56 percent in Asia Pacific.

The International Energy Agency found that investment momentum in critical mineral development weakened in 2024, with spending rising by just 5 percent, down from 14 percent in 2023. Adjusted for cost inflation, real investment growth was 2 percent.

A roadmap to de-risked and faster critical mineral mining

Lead times for mining projects, including critical minerals, have steadily increased over the last two decades. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, it now takes an average of 18 years to bring critical mineral mining projects from discovery to operation, a 40 percent increase from 15 years ago.

Based on research, analysis and interviews with key mining sector stakeholders, ERM has developed a practical roadmap to help reduce  lead times for critical mineral mines projects. The roadmap, covering key regulatory, socioeconomic, environmental and financial priorities, is designed to reduce delays and increase commercial viability of new critical mining projects, while enhancing their environmental and social performance. It is based on six core recommendations:

  • Identify the key risks and opportunities early. Mining companies should build a profile of rights holders, communities, key stakeholders, areas of environmental, cultural, or socio-economic significance, regulatory frameworks, and political nuances that could shape the project from the start.
  • Invest in timely collection of critical path data. Companies should invest early in key data and modelling to enable mining companies to prioritize capital allocation for maximum impact.
  • Ensure leadership builds engagement and trust. To build trust with communities, regulators, investors, and other stakeholders, company leadership must be accessible and transparent regarding issues including environmental stewardship and socio-economic independence for affected communities, setting out how these efforts contribute to commercial resilience.
  • Co-design for positive impact. Mine design should focus on the long-term climate, environmental, and economic resilience of physical assets, their surroundings, and affected communities. By understanding the orebody’s full economic opportunity, revenue streams can be maximized and waste minimized.
  • Prioritize transparency and adaptability. Although communication, especially regulatory and financial communications, is often linked to key milestones, mining companies should consider going beyond communicating ‘as needed’ to adopt a more transparent and responsive approach including robust and verifiable data and disclosures.
  • Use AI and technology. AI and machine learning should be used to help reduce exploration costs by integrating data sources to assess orebody potential, support the identification of viable exploration targets, and optimize early drilling campaigns. AI can also be a valuable tool in streamlining approaches to approval processes and legal frameworks, interpreting environmental and socio-economic data, facilitating risk management, and providing tailored reporting.

Louise Pearce, Global Industry Leader for Mining at ERM said: “Developing mines is becoming increasingly challenging, at a time when society’s need for critical minerals is accelerating.

“To meet the required pace and scale of supply, and avoid a critical minerals deficit, a fundamental shift is needed. Our roadmap to de-risked and faster critical mineral mining provides a practical mechanism for the sector to collaborate with the broader stakeholder ecosystem. By prioritizing transparency, communication, and sustainability, it enables faster development of new mines and enhances project performance, community trust and benefit sharing.”

Notes to editors

Methodology

ERM used an S&P dataset to review 226 major capital projects in pre-production globally: 96 gold projects and 132 critical mineral projects. The critical minerals reviewed were cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, manganese, nickel, rare earths and lanthanides, and zinc.

For each project, ERM analyzed company statements, news articles, and other sources to assess if projects were delayed (duration & reason). ERM also interviewed close to 50 representatives from five key mining stakeholder groups: the mining companies (juniors to majors); regulators; community, Indigenous and First Nations representatives; financial institutions; and civil society and industry groups.

About the ERM Sustainability Institute 

The Sustainability Institute is ERM’s primary platform for thought leadership. The purpose of the Institute is to define, accelerate, and scale sustainability performance by developing actionable insight for business. We provide an independent and authoritative voice to decode complexities. The Institute identifies innovative solutions to global sustainability challenges built on ERM’s experience, expertise, and commitment to transformational change. 

About ERM

Sustainability is our business.

As the world’s largest specialist sustainability consultancy, ERM partners with clients to operationalize sustainability at pace and scale, deploying a unique combination of strategic transformation and technical delivery capabilities. This approach helps clients to accelerate the integration of sustainability at every level of their business.

With more than 50 years of experience, ERM’s diverse team of 8000+ experts in 40 countries and territories helps clients create innovative solutions to their sustainability challenges, unlocking commercial opportunities that meet the needs of today while preserving opportunity for future generations. Learn more here.